For natural gas advocates, methane-fueled power plants are ideal: economical, safe, versatile, and reliable. For these advocates, renewables–particularly wind machines — are noisy, intrusive, and – gasp — intermittent and unreliable.
The gas case, as stated by its chief Washington lobbying group, the American Gas Association: “Through natural disasters and extreme weather events, the industry’s underground delivery system provides reliable energy Americans can count on.”
Here’s Marty Durbin, the American Petroleum Institute’s executive vice president and chief strategy officer, in Congressional testimony: “With respect to overall reliability, natural gas as a fuel supply is also exceptionally reliable, and the natural gas industry has a long history of providing reliable and continuous supplies to its customers, even in times of adversity, such as extreme weather events.”
In Texas, a major oil and gas state, lawmakers are considering major tax breaks for fossil fuel producers, and rejecting tax breaks for renewables, although the state is the nation’s largest wind energy producer. Oil and Gas Watch reported, “Texas legislators are considering a bill that would give fossil fuel companies – but not clean energy – huge breaks on the property taxes they pay to local school districts, narrowing a previous tax incentive program for energy projects that expired last year. The new House Bill 5 tax break program being debated in the Texas Legislature would bar renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar farms, from receiving tax breaks.”
But the actual performance record of natural gas generation and wind power in recent extreme weather suggests that the gas-favored reliability claim might be misplaced. In the mid-Atlantic’s Winter Storm Elliott last winter and 2021’s Winter Storm Uri in Texas saw gas limping while wind was working. The gas performance in Elliott even led to large fines from the PJM Interconnection and a significant bankruptcy filing from a company relying on gas-fired generation.
In the PJM system, many gas generating systems get paid in advance for their presumed ability to supply backup power when needed on an emergency basis. These financial benefits are awarded in PJM’s controversial capacity market. If they fail to perform, PJM can recover penalties, a policy put into place after many generators – mostly gas-fired – failed to deliver in the 2014 Polar Vortex.
When Elliott blew into PJM’s territory at the end of December, PJM believed it was ready. That turned out to be wishful thinking. Utility Dive reported, “About 45,950 MW, or 23.2% of PJM’s generating fleet, was unexpectedly offline on Dec. 24, mainly because of plant equipment that didn’t operate and fuel supply problems, Donnie Bielak, PJM senior manager for dispatch, said during a presentation to the grid operator’s Market Implementation Committee. Gas-fired generation accounted for 70% of the unplanned outages, he said.”
Wind helped pick up the slack. PJM’s planning credits wind for 2,000-MW of capacity, or 13% of total capacity. During Elliott, wind vastly over-performed, consistently supplying more than three times the planning figure.
This failure of gas to perform, with wind picking up some of the load, might have been predictable. Much the same thing happened in 2021 Winter Storm Uri. Environment Texas produced a timeline of the impact of Uri on generating assets in the Lone Star State. Here are some of the events the analysis captured:
Feb.11, as the deep freeze sets in, water in oil and gas well freezes. “Gas production in Texas ultimately drops by 45%.”
Feb. 13, “Gas power plants do not have enough methane gas to meet demand. The supply shortage problem is compounded when equipment at the power plants also freezes. The weather also takes coal and nuclear generators offline as lines, valves, and other equipment freeze. Dozens of wind turbines stop as ice forms around blades.”
Feb. 16, “Governor Abbott goes on Fox News’ Sean Hannity show to falsely claim that the blackout was largely caused by renewable energy. Hours earlier, a Senior Director for ERCOT said frozen wind turbines were ‘the least significant factor in the blackouts.'”
The bottom line for Uri, according to Environment Texas, “FERC is investigating possible market manipulation. While all forms of generation struggled under the extremely cold temperatures, FERC determined the majority of outages were at gas power plants.”
This is not to indict natural gas as a very useful fuel for electric generation, nor to promote wind as a panacea. Each has virtues. Each has limitations. A Britishism fits here: “Horses for courses.”
And a necessary reminder from conservative economist Milton Friedman and liberal ecologist Barry Commoner, as well as science fiction icon Robert Heinlein: “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.”
–Kennedy Maize
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