With just over a week to go, the British Parliament is scheduled to vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal with the European Union that would see (Dec. 11) the United Kingdom eventually leave the EU. The outcome is in doubt.
While steeped-in-duty May continues to say she will lead the UK out of the EU, despite her well-known skepticism of the value of an exit, a recent Reuters dispatch, is doubtful. The account says “the odds looked stacked against her getting it approved by a deeply divided British Parliament.”
Energy interests in both the UK and the EU are viewing the vote with trepidation. May’s compromise deal with the EU, which looks like a continental Brexit, kicking the trade can down the road, is the preferred option. The energy ties between the UK and the EU are deep and complex and severing them, at least in part, is fraught with difficulties. May’s compromise with the EU is probably the best deal available. Some sort of complete exit from the continent-wide trade and governmental institution causes cold sweats and heart burn for energy interests.
But a complete break with Europe is just what May’s opponents on her right in her conservative party are pushing. Trump Tory Boris Johnson (Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who has the worst hair of all) once May’s foreign secretary, is lining up votes against her. He’s been channeling the nattering nativist Nigel Farage in ginning up votes against May’s EU deal. They are pushing for a full English Brexit (complete with bangers and baked beans), an exit without any analysis of what might come next.
The opposition Labour Party, led by crypto-communist Jeremy Corbin, has said it will seek a “no confidence” vote on May’s leadership should she fail to get the EU deal through the Parliament. That could lead to her ouster as Prime Minister, and new elections. It would essentially trigger another referendum on Brexit, but with an outcome entirely unclear. If the Tories were to lose the election, would it mean a hard-line Brexit, something Labour opposes? If May were to win, does that mean her soft exit would prevail?
In the meantime, the UK’s energy interests are awaiting an outcome and not sure how to react to the various possibilities. Energy is an important topic when discussing EU and UK relations, but that hasn’t generated much general interest. The Guardian in the fall reported, “Brexit could drive up energy bills, power companies have said, because trade barriers threaten to increase the cost of importing gas and electricity across the Channel.”
The future relationship between the UK and the EU is particularly important for Scotland, the hub of the country’s oil and gas interests. The Scottish newspaper The Press and Journal, serving Aberdeen and Inverness, the heart of the UK’s oil and gas industry, recently reported, “A leaked Scottish Government report has outlined deep concerns over the impact to energy sector jobs post-Brexit.”
A House of Commons briefing paper last month said, “There is currently uncertainty about the Brexit impact on a number of issues including: the UK’s departure from Euratom, the future of the EU internal energy market (IEM) and the status of the single electricity market (SEM) on the island of Ireland.”
The paper also highlighted the impact of the departure from the EU on the UK’s climate change policy: “The level of the UK’s involvement or future cooperation with EU climate change efforts remains subject to ongoing negotiation.”
Should May’s EU deal fail, the implications are dire. The most likely outcome, it now appears is a dog’s Brexit, which the Cambridge Dictionary defines as “something that is very badly done.”
— Kennedy Maize