“Action Now!” radicalism has destroyed the slow moving, 2016 consensus based Paris Agreement. It is not just COP 25 that failed; the UN climate change machinery has collapsed. This is good news, even though the reason is bad news.
I have been writing about the climate alarmism movement tearing itself apart for months now. For example here.
The new radicalism is at war with the establishment moderates. This great gulf between radicals and moderates hit the COP 25 summit in Madrid with a vengeance. These annual summits are normally protracted exercises in compromise among the almost 200 nations represented. Not this time.
In Madrid the Action Now! radicals would not even consider compromise. Their extremism then caused the moderates to take hard line positions as well, so the COP stalled out and failed to act on any significant issue. That what the radicals demand is impossible did not help. The negotiating machinery ground to a noisy halt.
So now we have two very different versions of the alarmist rhetoric and a lot of people on each side. I call them the “Action Now!” hysterics (Greta, XR, etc.) and the moderates. The Paris Accord reflects the slow moving moderate view. It turns out that a lot of national delegations now take the hysterical view, especially the small island states and the African nations (both of which stand to make the most money).
You could see the breakdown coming, as Madrid was hyped as the “action COP” when it was nothing of the sort. Even the COP leaders took part in this foolish rhetoric. Yet the sorts of radical national actions being called for were simply not on the agenda. I doubt the moderate negotiators on the ground in Madrid had the authority to even consider the radical’s hysterical demands for immediate drastic action.
Nor is such radical action on upcoming COP agendas. It is not part of the Paris Accord process. Therein lies the problem for the Action Now! They demand what cannot happen.
The hysterics are calling for radical action at next year’s Glasgow COP at the latest. This is highly unlikely, to say the least.
In fact, the harassed moderates in Madrid pointed out that most countries, including all of the major emitters, do not have to file new emission reduction plans until 2030. China and India, the first and fourth biggest emitters, have already said that is their intent. Additionally, their plans allow for unlimited emission increases until 2030, which is intolerable for the Action Now!
America, the number two emitter, is certainly not going to file a radical action plan. U.S. membership in the Paris fiasco officially ends before the 2020 Glasgow COP begins in November.
If the Action Now! radicals continue their intransigence then the Paris Accord is essentially dead. This is almost certain to happen. Ironically the Paris agreement has been killed by the irrational fear of climate change that spawned it in the first place. Is that cool or what?
The death of the Paris Accord is fine by me. My only real concern is that the hysterics might somehow do real damage. So far this seems unlikely, given that what they are demanding is impossible.
This is why I cherish the hysterics. They are wrecking the climate scare political movement. It is like I am fighting an enemy force and suddenly it is having an endless civil war. I am all for that.
A wild year looms. Gear up! Have fun holidays.
— David Wojick. Wojick is a long-time energy and environmental analyst and principal of the Climate Change Education Debate Project. A version of this article originally appeared at the CFACT website.