Just when you thought the coronavirus was the harbinger of the apocalypse, here’s another knuckle-biter. The U.S. Geological Survey this week issued a new report on geomagnetic storms, finding that two-thirds of the contiguous U.S. coast-to-cost is vulnerable to power outages from the geomagnetic disruptions of solar storms, or solar coronal eruptions.
USGS said, “Magnetic disturbance during such a storm generates electric fields in the Earth’s crust and mantle. These electric fields can interfere with the operation of grounded electric power-grid systems.” The report concluded,” Four regions in the United States with particularly notable geoelectric hazards are identified and discussed: the East Coast, Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and the Denver metropolitan area.
The solar storms, USGS said, “are caused by the dynamic action of the Sun and solar wind on the space environment surrounding the Earth.”
As I wrote in an award-winning POWER magazine article in 2011, “The event begins with a giant thermonuclear explosion on the sun. The fusion of hydrogen atoms swells up and bursts open on the sun’s surface, spewing a stew of radiation and gas particles trapped in the solar wind. The continuous but variable flow of particles and magnetic fields from the sun creates gusts that can quickly reach Earth. Within hours, a space storm, a “coronal mass ejection” (CME), accompanied by a beautiful aurora borealis or ‘northern lights’ display of shimmering celestial curtains, bombards Earth with geomagnetic disturbances.”
For electrical grids and electrical equipment, the results can be catastrophic. A solar storm in March 1989 took out the grid in Canada’s Quebec province and caused severe damage to transformers down the U.S. east coast, frying transformers, ultimately blacking out some 130 million people in the U.S.
The economic damage to the U.S. of the 1989 solar storm totaled $1 trillion to $2 trillion. The new USGS report says that “a National Academy of Sciences study suggests that it could bring widespread blackouts, damage infrastructure, and have an economic impact of as much as $2 trillion.”
Solar storms follow a cycle of about 10-11 years. The last cycle, 2012-2020, did not produce catastrophic events on Earth. That’s no assurance that the next storm cycle will be benign, or severe. It’s a crapshoot. According to the National Weather Service, “Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel experts said Solar Cycle 25 may have a slow start, but is anticipated to peak with solar maximum occurring between 2023 and 2026.”
The federal government has recognized the threat, in Executive Order 13865 of March 2019, although not provided much guidance beyond how the government will try to coordinate a response. The order deals with “electromagnetic pulse” events, which include not only solar storms, but intentional attempts to disrupt the grid, such as high-altitude nuclear bomb explosions from an adversary. The largely anodyne order calls for “the Secretary of Energy, in consultation with the heads of other agencies and the private sector, as appropriate, shall review existing standards for EMPs and develop or update, as necessary, quantitative benchmarks that sufficiently describe the physical characteristics of EMPs, including waveform and intensity, in a form that is useful to and can be shared with owners and operators of critical infrastructure.”
— Kennedy Maize