The congested queue for grid interconnection continues to grow, according to a new study by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. New generation and storage capacity trying to connect to the U.S. grid in 2023 hit nearly 2,600 GW.
The difficulty in connecting to the grid is a major impediment to the transition from the legacy fossil-fuel centric U.S. electric system toward a low greenhouse gas environment.
“Active capacity in U.S. interconnection queues increased nearly eight-fold over the last decade and is now more than twice the total installed capacity of the existing U.S. power plant fleet,” according to the Department of Energy lab. “The queues indicate particularly strong interest in solar, battery storage, and wind energy, which together accounted for over 95% of all active capacity at the end of 2023.”
How fast has the queue grown? It is now “roughly eight times larger than the queue in 2014.” The study noted that “proposed projects are mired in lengthy and uncertain interconnection study processes, and most interconnection requests are ultimately cancelled and withdrawn.”
The lab adds that interconnection reforms the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission adopted last year (Order 2023) and refined this year (Order 2023-A) have yet to make much impact. Project developers, says the report, “continue to cite grid interconnection as a leading cause of project delays and cancellations. Submitting an interconnection request and completing the requisite grid studies is only one of many steps in the development process; projects must also have agreements with landowners and communities, power purchasers, equipment suppliers, and financiers, and may face transmission upgrade requirements. Data from these queues nonetheless provide a general indicator for mid-term trends in power sector activity and energy transition progress.”
The lab’s Joseph Rand, lead author of the study, said, “It is promising to see the unprecedented interest and investment in new energy and storage development across the U.S., but the latest queue data also affirm that grid interconnection remains a persistent bottleneck. The new rules from FERC will be a step in the right direction when implemented, but it is increasingly clear that additional solutions to interconnection problems are essential to maintain grid system reliability amidst rising electricity demand and utility- and state-level clean energy goals.”
The lab’s analysts crunched data from the seven U.S. organized electricity markets (RTO / ISOs) and 44 balancing areas outside of RTO / ISOs, collectively over 95% of currently installed U.S. electricity generation. The detailed results are available in a slide deck, data file, and interactive visualization.
According to the study, most of the capacity seeking grid access is solar (1,080 GW), with onshore wind at 366 GW, and offshore wind at 120 GW (four times the Biden administration’s goal of 30 GW installed by 2030). Electric storage “ballooned in recent years, with capacity in the queues growing more than 50% in the past year to roughly 1,030 GW.”
The queue has grown, notes Berkeley, despite interconnection red lights in PJM and MISO, two of the largest RTOs. Both faced massive interconnection requests in 2022. MISO refused interconnection requests in 2023 and PJM won’t review new requests until at least 2025. The study commented, “Yet, these slowdowns were more than offset by enormous growth in other regions – particularly CAISO (which had a record-breaking number and capacity of new requests in 2023), the non-ISO West, and ERCOT. CAISO since proposed to delay its 2024 application window to the following year.”
The growth in requests last year was driven in part by the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act with its hefty tax incentives and other goodies. Study co-author Nick Manderlink said, “The IRA supercharged the already-vigorous market for clean energy and storage development. But while the IRA improved economic certainty for projects, other uncertainties – like grid interconnection and permitting – remain challenging.”
In what looks like the beginning of a trend, the Berkeley study highlighted “increasing interest in co-locating generation with storage.” The study “found 571 GW of solar capacity in the queues are proposed as hybrid plants (53% of all solar in the queues), as is 49 GW of wind (13% of all wind in the queues). Over half of all storage capacity in the queues is proposed in hybrid configurations with generation (525 GW).” The hybrid trend was strongest in CAISO and the non-ISO West, “where 98% and 81% of all proposed solar is in a hybrid configuration, respectively.”
“Pairing electric generation with co-located storage can add market value and flexibility, especially in regions with a lot of solar and wind like California,” said Will Gorman, another lab co-author. “Even with the recent passing of the IRA, which boosted incentives for standalone storage, the demand for hybridization remained high in 2023.”
–Kennedy Maize