By Henry Sokolski
For several years now, Chinese officials have refused to negotiate nuclear arms control limits with the United States. Beijing says it shouldn’t have to until and unless America reduces its nuclear weapons arsenal to match much lower Chinese numbers. China, however, refuses to share how many nuclear weapons it has and it’s ramping up its nuclear weapons production as fast as it can. Adding insult to injury, China is doing this in violation of its Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) obligation to negotiate nuclear limits in good faith.
“Washington has one lever it’s not yet used that’s certain to get Beijing’s attention — the possible redeployment of U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea and Japan.”
Given these facts, most experts believe getting China to the nuclear negotiating table is a fool’s errand. Perhaps. But Washington has one lever it’s not yet used that’s certain to get Beijing’s attention — the possible redeployment of U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea and Japan.
As I note in the attached The Hill op-ed, “Call China’s Bluff on Nukes and Plutonium,” the United States has a clear, temporary nuclear advantage that could be made worse if South Korea and Japan persuaded the United States to redeploy the many hundreds of nuclear arms it once based on these countries’ soil. The United States currently has no such plans. Instead, the Biden administration has brought both Seoul and Tokyo closer into America’s nuclear confidence and planning to tamp down interest in redeployments.
It’s unclear, however, how long this might work. In fact, both South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and Japan’s most popular former prime minister, Shinzo Abe (murdered last year), have suggested that Washington redeploy its nuclear arms on their soil. This has Beijing worried while it is engaged in a crash plutonium production effort to ramp up its nuclear arsenal numbers.
As I explain in my The Hill piece, this recommends a simple deal. Washington should offer to hold off redeployments as long as China freezes its plutonium production program. To get the details, read the piece.
Henry Sokolski, executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, served as deputy for nonproliferation in the Defense Department and is the author of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future.