Hydrogen: Long on promise but short on delivery

By Kennedy Maize

Pennsylvania-based Air Products, the world’s largest producer of hydrogen, is moving away from basing much of its business on the a “clean” version of the first element on the periodic chart.

As the elementary element, a building block of life, hydrogen has long been a promising path to a clean, powerful, adaptable energy source. But, as Air Products and other major bettors on a hydrogen energy play are discovering, it may not pay.

It hasn’t paid for Air Products (NYSE:ADP), which reported a fiscal year 2025 second quarter loss of $1.7 billion after writing down $2.3 billion for the quarter. The company has a market capitalization of $60 billion.

The company’s staggering performance had led to a major executive suite bloodletting. The board earlier this year ousted  longtime CEO Seifi Ghasemi, replacing him with Eduardo Menezes.

At an earnings call with analysts and reporters May 1, Menezes pointed a finger at Ghasemi’s push for unconventional, “clean” H2, production. “We will focus 100% on our core industrial gas business,” he said. “We deployed capital to complex, higher risk projects with first-of-a-kind technologies — and, more importantly, without committed offtake agreements in place.”

The “core business” includes making oxygen, nitrogen, and “gray” hydrogen.

Little pure hydrogen exists in nature. Most is made by liberating H2 by breaking down chemicals that contain it, generally methane (CH4) or water (H2O).

It’s time to introduce the hydrogen color spectrum, to elucidate the ways mankind liberates H2.

For most purposes, the attention is on gray and green hydrogen, the main players in the hydrogen as a fuel discussion. As part of its retreat from the green variety, Air Products in February tanked two hydrogen projects, one in California to produce aviation fuel, the other in New York to make green hydrogen, along with a carbon monoxide plant in Texas.

Air Products may be the first of many green hydrogen retreats. Morningstar analyst Krzysztof Smalec told Heatmap, “I think that they’re just at the forefront of the industry pulling back. They’re the most exposed, so it’s the most high profile, but it’s not unique to Air Products.”

The move away from green hydrogen isn’t confined to the U.S. While German energy giant Siemens is bullish about electrolysis to produce power plant fuel, Norway’s state-owned Statkraft is pulling back. The company announced May 8 that it has “decided to stop new development of green hydrogen due to increased uncertainty in the market. Parts of the portfolio will be matured before seeking investors to realise the projects.” The company news release added that the move will impact “Norway, Sweden, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy.”

A January paper in the journal Nature Energy found, “Tracking 190 projects over 3 years, we identify a wide 2023 implementation gap with only 7% of global capacity announcements finished on schedule.” The study by two researchers from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warned, “Given past and future implementation gaps, policymakers must prepare for prolonged green hydrogen scarcity.”

The advent of the Trump administration has also caused clouds to form over government help for green hydrogen producers. Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act included generous tax credits for green H2 production The industry was complaining about the Biden administration’s strict rules for qualifying for tax credits, which emerged in January.

The Trump White House and the Republican Congress are targeting most of the clean energy subsidies left over from the Biden days.

Trump’s tariffs, whatever and if ever they become clear and consistent, could also pose problems. Power Technology reported that “the combination of geographically concentrated supply chains, a small membership of electrolyser manufacturers and highly specialised equipment and material requirements will cause the recent announcements to weigh heavily on the US’s green hydrogen sector.”

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A coal note: Under labor and congressional pressure, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has rescinded the firing of 328 workers at the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, including staff at the Morgantown, W.Va., office that provides services to underground coal miners with black lung disease and at the World Trade Center program serving victims of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack.

The Trump-appointed Kennedy had issued layoff notices to over 800 workers, more than 90% of the agency that is part of HHS’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That included all of the staff at Morgantown. Two miners had filed a class action suit against HHS and were awaiting a ruling by a U.S. district court judge. According to NPR, Kennedy announced the rollback at a Congressional hearing on Wednesday. Kennedy may call more NIOSH workers back to the job.

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