With Donald Trump headed toward the reins of the federal government in January, it’s difficult to predict what he will do with power this time. He mostly squandered it in his first term, partly due to inexperience, partly due to ineptitude, and, in a major way, due to the Covid pandemic.
During the 2024 campaign, he proved to be quixotic, many would say erratic, even chaotic. His blowtorch campaign seldom touched on substance relevant to questions of energy or environmental policy. He will likely find it difficult to implement radical changes, despite his campaign rhetoric.
There is some guidance, however. Some things he will surely do quite easily. Some things his advisors and political allies will push for. And some things, perhaps many, won’t change, simply because they are difficult and not within his attention span.
A good place to start is how he will deal with two statutorily independent energy regulatory agencies: the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Both deal with complex, difficult issues with no easy answers. Nor can the White House or any of the secretaries of the large and politically-dominated federal cabinet agencies easily manipulate them.
Both FERC and the NRC are governed by five-member commissions. All serve staggered fixed terms. The chair is a designated member of the governing party, the Trump administration in these cases. As vacancies occur, the White House, with Senate approval, can work over time to balance the commission so three are from the president’s party.
Here’s the lineup at FERC. There are no vacancies. Chairman Willie Phillips, a Democratic appointee, is serving a term ending June 30, 2026. Republican Mark Christie’s term ends June 30, 2025. Democrat David Rosner’s term expires June 30, 2027. Republican Lindsay See’s term ends June 30, 2028. Democrat commissioner Judy Chang’s term ends June 30, 2029.
Trump almost likely will name Christie or See as chairman, either as a temporary place holder pending a new commissioner, or for the balance of the term. Christie has the most experience as an energy regulator, serving for many years as a member of Virginia’s State Corporation Commission. He is popular with the FERC staff and an active and trenchant participant in FERC proceedings. Trump could name Christie chairman and reappoint him to a new five-year term.
See is a newcomer, joining the commission in July from a position as West Virginia solicitor general. She likely will have a patron in incoming West Virginia Republican Sen. Jim Justice. He replaces West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin, who was chairman of the Senate Energy Committee, which approves FERC nominees for Senate floor votes. Manchin chose not to run for reelection.
At the NRC, the administration has a vacancy available, as well as two sitting Republican commissioners. Democratic Chairman Christopher Hanson’s term ends June 30, 2029. Republican David Wright’s term ends June 30, 2025, Republican Annie Caputo’s term ends June 30, 2026, and Republican Bradley Crowell’s term ends June 30, 2027. Trump could pick one of the Republican commissioners or name a new commissioner, designated chairman, early next year.
Cabinet secretaries are a much different matter and it’s doubtful that anyone in the incoming administration, including Trump, has much of a handle on those jobs. They are, of course, intensely political and subject to much internal positioning and infighting, including strategic and tactical leaks. It’s likely many of those scuffles will become public.
Turning to policy, the landscape is far murkier. During his first term and during the campaign, Trump made it clear he wasn’t much interested in climate change, and in fact didn’t really believe the climate was changing. At least rhetorically, this is likely going to be a reprise of his first term.
On the other hand, one of the mechanisms that Biden put in place, the inappositely-named Inflation Reduction Act, along with the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and the CHIPS and Science Act contain a lot of things major Trump business supporters like. That’s despite the fact that no Republican in Congress voted for the IRA.
The Biden money is also flowing primarily to Republican districts. A recent analysis by the Washington Post and MIT found that “red districts have emerged as the climate law’s biggest winners. According to The Post’s analysis, congressional districts that favored Trump in the 2020 election received three times as much clean energy and manufacturing investments as those that leaned toward Biden.”
In addition to boosting solar panels and windmills (Trump says he hates windmills), along with nuclear, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage, the administration has been pushing electric vehicles, something Trump slammed while campaigning. That was an appeal to win autoworkers. But Trump’s new best buddy Elon Musk – Trump called him a “super genius” in his Wednesday victory speech – is the current U.S. king of EVs. China has probably passed him in the rest of the world.
What’s the impact of Trump’s EV aversion? Seeking Alpha reported Wednesday, “Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) closed the Wednesday session with a gain of 14.7% on volume of over 148 million shares. The EV stock carved out a new 52-week high of $289.59 earlier in the session and is threatening to jump onto the one-trillion dollar market cap list that only includes nine stocks in the U.S.”
Trump has professed not to have any knowledge of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. That was a lie. Vice president-elect Vance wrote the preface as an Ohio senator. It’s clear that document will be at least a general roadmap for the Trump administration. Many of its participants will find themselves ensconced in positions to implement as much of it as they can. Take a look at The Quad Report’s three-part series on the report.
Perhaps the wisest take on the incoming administration comes from climate policy analyst Roger A. Pielke, Jr. He notes that “political victories don’t on their own make anything happen, other than people taking office. What makes things happen are policies. Effective policy making requires policy options that can work.
“The outcome of the House is currently still uncertain, but even if it goes to the Republicans, it will be by a very narrow margin. Governing will still be difficult for the next two years and if history is any indication, Republican control may not last more than two years, at which point governance would become even more complex.”
Complexity is not Trump’s forte.
–Kennedy Maize
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