California faces a challenging trifecta of troubles: wildfires driven by a blitz of lightning strikes, a heat wave of massive proportions causing rolling electricity blackouts, and a corona virus resurgence. How is the Golden State responding? With recriminations, blame shifting, and head-scratching.
It reminds me of a 1950s satirical ditty sung most effectively by the Kingston Trio:
“The whole world is festering with unhappy souls
The French hate the Germans, the Germans hate the Poles
Italians hate Yugoslavs, South Africans hate the Dutch
And I don’t like anybody very much!!”
The rolling blackouts have topped the news, as the state’s reviled electric utilities, particularly Pacific Gas & Electric, have shut off power to hundreds of thousands of customers for two-hour periods in order to keep the state’s tenuous grid from collapsing. And that’s where the blame game has been played with ferocity.
Contentions have surrounded California’s decades-long retreat from conventional electric generating technologies — nuclear, coal, and natural gas – in favor of solar photovoltaic and wind generation. There is also lingering skepticism about California’s independent grid. For long-time observers, it’s reasonable to observe that the state has been attacked by a nasty duck. Specifically, the state’s increasing reliance on sunlight to make power, creator of the notorious “duck curve.”
Solar often matches the load, but not always. As an article by two analysts in Utility Dive noted, “Managing periods during this time, the well-known ‘duck curve,’ is usually predictable and hence straightforward. However, with hot temperatures continuing into the evening, air conditioning needs remained high.” Oops.
For background, California has been consciously moving away from conventional generating sources in favor of renewables, which can’t respond to load swings, and away from baseload, which provides a foundation for other generating technologies. The motive has been to end carbon dioxide emissions and, in the case of nuclear, politically incorrect power. The state has completely abandoned coal, not only ruling that there will be no coal-fired power in the state, but also eschewing imports of power from other states that are coal generated.
For many years, natural gas was the replacement for the end of coal and nuclear generation. But gas, which has greenhouse gas emissions, also became politically incorrect. The politically correct course of California action is wind and sun.
But when heat push came to demand shove this summer, the lights went out and the air conditioning stopped blowing. Stephen Berbich, the head of the California Independent System Operator, which dispatches the power to the grid, in the Los Angeles Times pointed his finger (not sure which one) at the state’s utility regulator, the historically corruption-riddled California Public Utilities Commission. “For many years,” he said, “we have pointed out to the [Public Utilities Commission] that there was inadequate power available during the net peak. The situation we are in could have been avoided.”
On the other hand, California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsome basically said the problem is that the state hasn’t gone far enough with its renewables. He said during a press conference that the problem was “gaps” in the state’s renewable fleet. In a classic political word waffle, he said, “In the process of the transition, in the process of shutting down, understandably, the desire and need to shut down polluting gas plants … comes the need to have more insurance, comes the need to recognize that there have been — by definition, demonstrably, in the last few days and what we expect over the next few days — gaps in terms of that reliability.” He asserted, “We are not backing off on that commitment,” to end fossil fuel generation.”
Newsome also scolded the state regulators, calling for an investigation, a standard hammer in the political toolbox.
The wind interests rang in, claiming that the state needs more of the same, as long as it is wind power. The American Wind Energy Association said that “there is still plenty of wind power available in New Mexico Wyoming, and other states, proved we have the transmission in place to bring this power online when we need it.” It’s a big and problematic caveat. That transmission doesn’t exist.
Predictably, the Natural Resources Defense Council’s Ralph Cavanagh, a decades-long observer of California’s energy follies, took issue with running diesel backup generation and touted demand-side management and western grid integration. He also defended the ISO, which some in the blame game targeted for criticism. He said that “the CAISO has warned repeatedly of looming reliability issues and now has moved swiftly to minimize the damage, in cooperation with grid managers across the vast expanse of a severely overheated western region. No one is happy with rolling blackouts.”
Then there is President Trump, with characteristic bombast and imprecision, who blames Democrats, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, and Democrat leftist AOC. Trump tweeted, “In California, Democrats have intentionally implemented rolling blackouts — forcing Americans in the dark. Democrats are unable to keep up with energy demand,”
There are sober observers. Alex Trembath and Zeke Hausfather of Oakland-based The Breakthrough Institute commented, “Rising energy costs and the ongoing reliability crisis cannot be blamed entirely on California’s growing solar and wind sectors. But this month’s challenges surface the complexities and difficulties of energy transitions, and the imperative of maintaining a flexible and diverse supply of energy technologies.”
— Kennedy Maize