Australia’s out-of-power right-wing party alliance , the “Coalition,” is assailing a government report that says nukes are too slow and too expensive to make a major contribution to reducing the country’s greenhouse gases.
The Coalition is made up of the remnants of the defeated Liberal (right) and National (far right) parties, while the left leaning Labor party now controls the government. Among the supporters and funders of the Coalition are the powerful coal interests, the uranium mining and processing industry, ideological thinks tanks, and the Murdock media empire.
Every year, CSIRO, the government’s scientific research agency, and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) produce updated cost estimates for new future electric generating technologies in Australia, known as the “GenCost” report.
The 2023-2024 draft report from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), released at the end of last year, continues to find, as in previous years, that “variable renewables” – large-scale solar photovoltaics, onshore wind, and battery storage – still “have the lowest cost range of any new-build technology.”
Reporting on the political reaction to the GenCost report, Sky News commented, “Shadow Climate Change and Energy Minister Ted O’Brien hit back, saying he is engaged with experts who say Australia could establish nuclear power within a decade. The Coalition is understood to be looking at coal-fired power station sites to host nuclear reactors but is yet to reveal the full costings.”
Opposition leader Peter Dutton, a Liberal (the Liberals favor nuclear power, of which Australia has none), complained that the CSIRO report was “discredited” because it “doesn’t take into account some of the transmission costs, the costs around subsidies for the renewables.” That assertion is false. O’Brien said (falsely) on ABC TV, Australia’s equivalent of the Public Broadcasting Service in the U.S., that the CSIRO report has been “largely discredited.”
The Coalition’s high dudgeon focused on CSIRO’s assessment of small modular nuclear reactors. The reported noted, “The cost of nuclear small modular reactors (SMR) has been a contentious issue in GenCost for many years with conflicting data published by other groups proposing lower costs than those assumed in GenCost.”
The GenCost report calculated the estimated cost for SMRs based on NuScale’s experience with its failed western U.S. project with Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems. The final estimated capital cost of the NuScale project was $31,100/kWh, the GenCost report said, a 70% increase over earlier estimates. The report concluded, “The significant increase in costs likely explains the cancellation of the project. The cancellation of this project is significant because it was the only SMR project in the US that had received design certification from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission which is an essential step before construction can commence.”
The Coalition attack led microbiologist and CSIRO CEO Doug Hilton to issue a written rebuttal. He wrote, “The GenCost report is updated each year and provides the very best estimates for the cost of future new-build electricity generation in Australia. The report is carefully produced, its methodology is clearly articulated, our scientists are open and responsive to feedback, and as is the case for all creditable science, the report is updated regularly as new data comes to hand.” Hilton added, As Chief Executive of CSIRO, I will staunchly defend our scientists and our organisation against unfounded criticism.”
Mineral extraction has long been a dominant feature of Australia’s economy (hence the nickname “Diggers). The country has what geologists estimate are 35% of world uranium reserves, which have been mined since 1906. In 2019, the Kazakhstan was the world’s largest uranium producer, followed by Canada and Australia.
Coal remains king down under, Australia is the world’s fifth largest coal producer and second largest coal exporter, with the third largest reserves. Coal is mined in every Australian state.
The international mineral giant Rio Tinto is a British-Australian joint venture. Australia also has significant gas reserves and is a significant liquified natural gas exporter.
Coal and natural gas dominate electric generation in Australia. Despite the large presence of uranium, the country has long eschewed nuclear power, despite the Liberal Party enthusiasm for atomic power. There is one small reactor in the country, used to produce medical isotopes, not electricity.
Liberal Dutton has claimed he will soon reveal six possible sites for new nukes. Those are likely to be on or near coal-fired generating station. Shadow energy minister O’Brien said nuclear power could be “up and running” within a decade, which seems entirely hyperbolic.
Of the Coalition’s complaints about GenCost, Guardian Australian reporter Graham Readfearn commented, “This is what happens when an uncosted Coalition thought-bubble on nuclear power is presented as a concrete proposal.”
CSIRO says it plans to issue the final report in this year’s second quarter.
NuScale continues to bleed red ink
Portland, Ore., small modular reactor company NuScale last Thursday (Mar. 14) reported a 2023 loss of $180.1 million, compared to a 2022 loss of $141.6 million and a 2021 loss of $102.5 million. The 2023 loss came on net revenue of $3.8 million, versus $4.5 million in 2022, and $1.1 million in 2021.
In its 8K filing at the Securities and Exchange Commission, NuScale said, “We have not generated any material revenue to date. All revenue that we have generated to date arises from engineering and licensing services provided to potential customers, including those as a result of those FEED services. We expect to generate a significant portion of our revenue from the sale of NPMs [nuclear power modules—Ed.]. We also expect to generate revenue by providing critical services, such as start-up and testing and nuclear fuel and refueling services, over the life cycle of each power plant.”
In the SEC filing, NuScale acknowledged it has no customers. The company said, “NuScale has a strong pipeline of potential customers consisting of governments, political subdivisions, state-owned enterprises, investor-owned utilities and other technology and industrial companies, both in domestic and international markets, considering the deployment of an SMR power plant utilizing our technology.”
–Kennedy Maize