Hydro pessimism about contribution to 1.5 degrees

Don’t look to the oldest non-carbon electric generating technology, and currently the leading green power generation, to make a significant contribution to meeting the global goal of keeping world temperatures from increasing beyond 1.5 degrees. In a new report, the International Hydropower Association (IHA) says waterpower is not on the path to meeting that goal.

According to the report, the industry brought 26 GW of new hydro worldwide online in 2021. That’s far short of the 45 GW the International Energy Agency said is necessary to achieve the 1.5 degree goal and “net zero” greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

“The 2022 Hydropower Status Report is a stark wake-up call to governments around the world that we are falling short of the progress that is needed,” says IHA Chief Executive Eddie Rich. “We have the technology to achieve net zero and the knowledge to deliver it sustainably. All that’s needed is the political will to make it happen.”

According to the new status report, the ninth the IHA has produced over the years, 2021 saw:

“* Global installed hydropower capacity rose by 26 GW to 1360 GW in 2021

* 4,250 TWh of clean electricity was generated from hydropower, 1 and a half times the entire electricity consumption of the EU

* Around 80% of new hydropower capacity installed in 2021 was in a single country – China

* 4.7 GW of pumped storage hydropower was added to the grid, triple the amount added in 2020.”

Harkening back to the COP 26 international climate meeting in Glasgow last November and its pitch to get rid of coal, the IHA report says, “Filling the hole left by coal will be a major task over the coming decade. Hydropower, with its ability to provide both flexible and reliable power, is ideally placed to deliver.” The IHA notes, “The development of sustainable hydropower, with its ability to provide both flexible and reliable power, is needed to support the growth of other renewable sources such as wind and solar, and to avoid reverting to the use of fossil fuels, such as coal. Certifying these developments against the Standard will ensure that any new development is delivered responsibly and delivers net positive benefits to society and the environment.”

That’s not happening on the scale needed. And the impending death of coal, to paraphrase Mark Twain, has been greatly exaggerated. As a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and resulting disruption of European oil and gas markets, causing prices to soar, Europe, the U.S., and China have turned to coal.

The Wall Street Journal reports, “An energy-starved world is turning to coal as natural-gas and oil shortages exacerbated by Russia’s war against Ukraine lead countries back to the dirtiest fossil fuel.

From the U.S. to Europe to China, many of the world’s largest economies are increasing short-term coal purchases to ensure sufficient supplies of electricity, despite prior pledges by many countries to reduce their coal consumption to combat climate change.”

–Kennedy Maize

(kenmaize@gmail.com)

Twitter (@kennedymaize)