By Kennedy Maize
Something positive has happened for the U.S. coal business in Wyoming. It has nothing to do with the Trump administration’s feckless attempts to boost what the President calls his “beautiful clean coal,” prompting eye-rolling outside 1600 Pa. Ave. and beyond.
In a pilot project, Peabody Energy, the Union Pacific railroad, and Mexico’s dominant rail shipper Ferromex have shipped coal from Peabody’s North Antelope Rochelle surface mine, the largest in the U.S., through Mexico and on to Vietnam. It could establish a new export terminal for Powder River Basin coal, much closer than current two coal export terminals in California and one in British Columbia.
According to Global Energy Monitor, “Nine proposals for additional coal export facilities in the Pacific Northwest, which would have added at least 133 million tonnes of additional annual coal-handling capacity, have been cancelled since 2010, dealing a major blow to the viability of coal mining operations in the US interior.”
The test shipments started at the mine, with the loaded hopper cars traveling from Gilette to Nogales on the U.S.-Mexican border, where Ferromex picked up the cars and headed to the port of Guaymas in the state of Sonora, where the coal was loaded on Panamax ships going to Vietnam, which is increasing its coal-based electric generation.
The online industry newsletter E+ELeader wrote, “The move demonstrates that the route works, not that it is commercially viable. Union Pacific and Peabody have described the shipments as a feasibility test, and the railroad says future runs will depend on market conditions. North Antelope Rochelle, about 65 miles south of Gillette, produced 65 million short tons of coal in 2025 and is served by both Union Pacific and BNSF.”
The Peabody story may be a positive blip, but it comes as the U.S. coal industry continues its long-term domestic decline as electric generation market increasingly shifts the once king of the generating hill into a minor market factor.
The Energy Department’s own Energy Information Administration (EIA) tells the tale. In the latest EIA “Short-Term Energy Outlook”, coal’s share of electric generation for 2025 was 17%, falling to 16% this year, and predicted at 14% for 2027. In contrast, natural gas, the new king at 40%, remains steady through this year and next, as does the second-place finisher, nuclear at 18%, with wind growing from 11% in 2025 and 2026 to 12% in 2027. The most consistently growing generation is solar, from 7% last year to 8% this year, and 9% next year, according to EIA.
EIA says, “Reduced demand for coal in the electric power sector leads to lower coal production in our forecast. We expect coal production to fall from 528 million short tons (MMst) in 2025 to 516 MMst in 2026 and 497 MMst in 2027. The decline is driven primarily by the Western region, which produces about half of total coal supply in the country.”
The Trump administration to the contrary notwithstanding, what’s happened to coal is about markets, not government policy. Coal analyst Seth Feaster of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, says the Trump administration’s efforts to rescue coal are futile.
Feaster predicts “a continued decline despite the administration’s efforts to really give coal a leg up. One, it’s not competitive, Two, there’s a lot of other stuff being built right now, particularly solar, and still some wind, but solar all over the country.”
One of the administration’s attempts to get coal rolling again is taking place at the federal government-owned Tennessee Valley Authority. TVA has been the poster child for what Trump wants for the U.S. electric system: a return to the 1970s where coal and nuclear dominated. In those days, TVA was a national leader is both coal generation and nuclear power.
Prior to Trump’s second arrival in Washington, TVA was moving away from its 50-year-old heritage. Then Trump last year rapidly restructured TVA’s leadership, replacing the board of directors and top management with acolytes. The giant regional power agency quickly reversed course, moving away from natural gas and back toward coal and nuclear.
A major part of that retreat to the future was a decision to drop the plan to close one of TVA’s largest coal plants, the Cumberland plant, commissioned in 1973, with two identical units totaling 2,470-MW. TVA had planned to retire one unit this year and the second in 2028.
In order for the plant to be economically competitive, it will require a major makeover, meaning loading up new costs on TVA’s captive customers. The Knoxville Sentinel reported last week, “The Tennessee Valley Authority’s decision to abandon the retirement of two coal-fired power plants could cost the nation’s largest public utility more than $1 billion over several years, but a final price has not been calculated for the reversal.” According to a TVA public affairs official, when TVA decided in 2021 to shut the plant down, it calculated that would take about $1.37 billion to bring the plant up to modern requirements.
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