By Kennedy Maize
Is the Colorado River basin crisis finally coming to a head after a year-long stalemate pitting the four Upper Basin supplier states (Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico) against the three Lower Basin ) consumer states?
At an event in Wyoming last week with Wyoming Republican Gov. Mark Gordon, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum highlighted the Interior Department’s “deadline” threat that if the seven states in the 1922 Colorado River Compact can’t resolve their differences, his Bureau of Reclamation will.
In April, Interior ordered diversion of water from the Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming and Utah to keep the Colorado flow higher so the Glen Canyon and Hoover Dam hydroelectric projects could keep running. Hoover Dam’s Lake Mead in Nevada and Arizona powers a hydroelectric generator with 2,078-MW capacity. Lake Powell in Utah and Arizona behind the Glen Canyon Dam supplies water to a 1,320-MW hydropower plant.
Interior told the states in mid-2025 that they had until that November to come up with a consensus plan of their own or the federal hammer would come down. They didn’t. November came and passed with no deal and Burgum told the parties to agree by February 14, 2026. He met with six of the governors as that date arrived.
When the Valentine’s Day ultimatum failed, Burgum set July 31 as the next red line. That’s this week. In the Wyoming meeting, Cowboy State Daily reported that Burgum said that “if we come up with a plan that nobody likes, we probably have the right plan. Because when you have a shortage (of Colorado River water) that’s this severe, if somebody was happy and somebody was unhappy, then it’s not the right amount of sharing the pain or shouldering the responsibility.”
Last week, according to BuRec, Burgum also met online with the governors of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, and California to hash out the issues. “Interior remains focused on establishing a new operating framework and continues to work with the states and 30 tribes to get closer to consensus in recognition of the importance of the Colorado River to their economies and the approximately 40 million people who rely on it,” he said.
A real deadline looms. On Oct. 1, the 2007 plan under the compact that currently governs the allocation of the vital water from the river expires.
The implications are dire. The giant river system spans two Mexican states, seven U.S. states, and 29 Indian tribes. The federal government owns the entire U.S. portion of the river system, including the two large hydro plants. It is an economic and personal boon for over 40 million Americans. The river provides drinking and irrigation water, recreation, and electricity.
The 1922 compact was based on optimal water conditions that no longer apply. When the parties to the compact divvied up the flow, the river was supplying 16 million acre feet. Today, the flow is only 3.5 million, according to Burgum. The regional population has grown from 10 million in 1922 to over 40 million today, with substantial metro populations in both basins.
On top of that, as a new report from the Walton Family Foundation and the Thirst Foundation notes, “A century-old overestimation about water flow is colliding with a 26-year ‘mega-drought’ in the summer of 2026, pushing the basin’s water systems to the brink of collapse. The 1922 Compact that allocated the river among Upper Basin and Lower Basin states was based on over-optimistic expectations for water supply. This over-allocation, compounded by heat driven aridification, has depleted Lake Mead and Lake Powell to around one-third capacity.”
A rumor has been floating around in the West that Burgum is going to punt on a new plan, agreeing to essentially continue the status quo in terms of the allocations of the water with minor changes for only two years, through 2028. The aim is to push the controversy off the political agenda until the Trump administration is out of office, leaving the nasty political mess for when a new administration takes office in January 2029.
The Los Angeles Times noted that in May the three Lower Basin states agreed to cuts in their allocation of the river water through 2028, adding that “the federal government is set to sign off on much of their proposal. The Trump administration could have required cuts nearly twice as large.”
Interior’s approach may become clearer soon. According to BuRec on July 21, “next week” the agency “plans to release the Final Environmental Impact Statement for Post 2026 Operations.” The agency unveiled a draft impact statement back in January, a 1,600-page tome offering five possible routes to a new river management scheme, from the de rigueur “do nothing” option to a dynamic, flow-based allocation process.
That could be either a roadmap toward a new, long-term river plan or cover for kicking the political can down the road one more time.
The Quad Report, covering energy policy and politics
